As 2013 draws to a close and 2014 soon begins, I’ll make another prediction – I think that Bitcoin will appreciate by at least another X10 factor in 2014. So to make it concrete, I’ll predict that the closing price at end of 2014 by bitcoinaverage.com will be at least $10,000.
A more caution prediction would predict an increase in “digital decentralized currencies” AKA crypto-currencies because it’s possible another coin will overtake Bitcoin as the lead … but I don’t see this happening in 2014, I think Bitcoin’s network effect is still working wonders for it. Some coins like Mastercoin, Ripple and others might have a better chance to literally overthrow Bitcoin long term, but I think 2014 is still too early for that to happen.
So for simplicity, I will ignore any other coins and predict a X10 increase in pure Bitcoin price.
Why do I make this prediction now? My logic is this: Bitcoin has had an intrinsic advantage over Fiat currencies ever since its inception, and so my prediction was always “there’s a good chance that ‘one day’ Bitcoin will win”. I was always a bit hesitant to put a specific timeline on this, but rather preferred to talk about “some time in the far future when Bitcoin kills Fiat”. Well, my personal experience in the last three years, and including the prior two years of data, has shown that Bitcoin outperforms these conservative estimates, and actually continues year after year on its exponential growth path.
Bitcoin is viral, and its virality isn’t showing any signs whatsoever of slowing down. Sure, a price increase from $1,000 to $10,000 has more real world impact than a mere increase from $1 to $10 a few years ago … but the impact makes sense due to all the real world attention Bitcoin is getting (The first Round B in a Bitcoin company was just announced today … we’ll see more of these in 2014). All the indicators I’m seeing are positive. 2014 will be a rocky year, for sure, and we’ll see the usual price flucuations … but my money remains betting on the UP direction.
Disclaimer – obviously, I’m super biased as I have a large Bitcoin position. I’m also not advising anyone to invest – you’re grown ups, do you own investment analysis … I am just sharing my personal opinions and crossing my personal fingers.